01:11:48 sech1: sech1: re "Once you get a huge stake, you don't need to spend much resources to maintain it": you ideally launch a staking consensus mechanism with a delay in activation, giving time for stakers to lock coins, and even after launch, first just use it to come to consensus about its own state. this allows honest stake to [... too long, see https://mrelay.p2pool.observer/e/5sGckLAKSFk5blhX ] 01:12:10 when Ethereum transitioned (they switched to full proof of stake, not what we're discussing here, well, not me), they ran the staking consensus layer on mainnet, with real funds in "standalone" mode for ~20 months before it became the primary mechanism. not that Monero should wait that long, but it gives you an idea. 01:12:44 my point is, securing a large-enough malicious stake (>33% to stall finality, >67% to take it over) should be economically infeasible, because 1) finite supply at any moment, 2) liquidity constraints. trying to buy up so many coins should drive the price up exorbitantly, eventually pricing the attempt out. in our case, XMR is already highly illiquid. 01:13:03 33% of staked* coins 01:13:22 ofrn, exactly 01:13:25 there's the nuclear option of forking out malicious stake, which is very much social coordination, but the PoW moral equivalent has already happened multiple times (Cryptonite variant 1 fork, Cryptonite-R fork, RandomX fork). both are last-resort ways for the community to render consensus-producing resources useless when centralization threatens the chain. 01:13:33 which is probably less than an exchange would be able to stake at any givrn point in time 01:13:34 IMHO, in the case of forking out stake, even if the community can't agree if they would ever resort to it in the future, the technical possibility is a very strong deterrent for potential attackers. 01:14:51 Exchanges can, do, and will stake user deposits. both with permission (staking pools) or without (like tradeogre staking zano) 01:15:34 I imagine protocols like serai would also become stakers 01:17:01 i dont think it's safe to assume that the stake will be distributed / not concentrated to 1 or 2 entities 01:19:33 yes, my points suppose that that the honest portion of self-custodial XMR holders who are willing to stake outweigh CEX holdings. I'm confident that this is currently the case, otherwise Monero is already a social failure and we shouldn't waste time with bolstering the consensus. 01:25:00 holders? Sure. 80% of the supply was printed in like 4 years. Active? Thats another question. 01:26:05 10% of pre-rct outputs remain unspent, thats probably (i havent checked) close* to 10% of the total supply 01:27:15 Now, what about the other 90%? Churned, spent, who knows. Its private. 01:27:15 we do know that a single entity donated 400k to monero twice, and spammed thousands of xmr to the generalfund 01:27:29 if Serai were to become a staker, which I don't think it would, simply on the grounds of unnecessary protocol complexity, the only way I can imagine that implemented would be using its own consensus, which should be decentralized enough to not pose a threat (otherwise keeping significant XMR there is a threat to LPs and a reas [... too long, see https://mrelay.p2pool.observer/e/2f_VkLAKN3BZR1lC ] 01:28:31 serai is an example. Who's to say it wouldnt be a less friendly operation 01:31:41 and no, i dont think holders willing to stake outweigh cex holdings. And a TFL has limited stakers 01:31:53 Its not like "anyone with 0.5xmr can stake" 01:38:30 it's very probable XMR whales 1) don't keep it on a CEX, and 2) check in a few times a year to see what is going on with the protocol that secures a significant value of their holdings. 01:38:41 they also very probably wouldn't behave in a way that destroys the USD value of their XMR, like LP'ing in a scammy AMM DEX chain, but I admit it's a concern. 01:40:14 yes, to avoid DDoS, a staking consensus would have a minimum stake requirement. that's not an issue. the power law distribution applies here. 03:28:05 @chaser: If you can loan your xmr out on kucoin (for margin), and now earn extra from staking, why wouldnt you?. There are a lot of people who only check in every few years 03:29:06 usually people who have big bags that they bought at low prices, checking in during bull markets, so they can sell some 04:37:32 @ofrnxmr:xmr.mx: I already told you. if I'm a large holder, I'm sensitive to the USD valuation of my XMR, so I pay attention to ecosystem news, like a protocol change where leaving my XMR on Kucoin could lead to XMR losing value (my bag) and potentially losing my XMR (be that in-protocol automatic slashing, or getting forked [... too long, see https://mrelay.p2pool.observer/e/jfuNlrAKY19DdUJX ] 05:16:18 Sounds idealistic instead of realistic 05:20:51 Allowing people to borrow your coins is an incentive to loan them out. It doesnt hurt your valuation to earn 10% by loaning your coins out to traders who provide liquidity on orderbooks. 05:20:51 There are whole services for taking loans against your crypto as well. investors dont care about "xmr", they care about earnings. Pooled staking and margin loans dont hurt that bottom line 05:24:08 And pooled staking is more of an attraction for people who otherwise dont qualify for the staking minimums. 07:39:11 Imagine spending 2 billion dollars pumping monero up and then you just get forked out. GGs, thanks for the tax money Mr nation state > <@chaser> IMHO, in the case of forking out stake, even if the community can't agree if they would ever resort to it in the future, the technical possibility is a very strong deterrent for potential attackers. 07:40:52 Some with 1 xmr has more xmr than most CEXs > <@ofrnxmr:xmr.mx> and no, i dont think holders willing to stake outweigh cex holdings. And a TFL has limited stakers 08:23:31 @unt0ld:matrix.org: Example (checkpoints): https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.09437, https://eth2book.info/capella/part2/consensus/lmd_ghost/ 08:24:12 sech1: once you have enough compute, you can nuke the chain forever on government contracts 08:27:18 amazons cost to mine on older hardware is super low, especially if they get contracted by the feds to do so 08:27:43 they already spent 650k on a chainalysis contract that didnt really produce anything 08:28:37 that money could EASILY be used to contract amazon to erase 3-5 days of monero history to permanently damage trust in the chain 08:29:17 multi-month erasure for a few million 08:29:36 extremely cheap if you really think about it 08:30:08 attacking PoS requires a massive up-front investment and pumps Monero, which puts tons of eyes on it 08:30:51 the PoS-Attack pump would attract fomo-buyers which just makes it even more expensive 08:34:06 also consider that its just a denial of service. if they try to double spend, even if they have most of the stake it can just be forked and slashed. its not like their shenanigans will be unnoticed by market participants. 08:39:54 for Eth style extreme slashing to be effective, best to assume a startup phase with 67% honest validators. Can we expect that ? 08:40:19 the problem with pos is that the stake requirements are picked arbitrarily high. higher stake percentages of total market cap and in terms of individual nodes does not necessarily increase security. Especially if it is a result of nominal inflation that is gifted to stakers. Weird second layer concepts like "liquid staking" g [... too long, see https://mrelay.p2pool.observer/e/6oeHnbAKY2hrZWQt ] 08:47:54 the question is: how many market participants can the attacker fool for long enough that a certain alternative chain where he double spent is reality? the issue with eth is that the whole system is overcomplicated and most people dont run their own nodes and just trust what ever is preset in their wallet. 08:49:41 complex slashing systems and liquid staking just make the system harder to reason about. The complexity also comes with the side effect of making bugs and subtle differences between implementations more likely. 08:50:23 last time i looked into eth staking the node would have cost $80k in stake and 800 in gas fees 08:52:14 you also need to do shit like setting up a mev block builder 08:52:29 because otherwise you are missing out on large percentages of the APY 08:52:33 dont have that in monero 08:59:05 Another turn: am I the only one who is into recursive reputation systems eg eigentrust ? Too complex to get the idea across ? Basically all these resilient systems try to capitalize on a honest (trusted) startup phase - thats the bottom line of my review of ~50 papers on the topic. 09:07:54 @antilt:we2.ee: : similar to long range attacks in pos you could eclipse a node and feed him the wrong history. no way to get around the fact that you get the software and a trusted by most initial / current state from a trusted source 09:08:58 once that is accepted it is best to keep the system as simple as possible. most communities treat this like the floor is made of lava though. 09:14:29 @spirobel:kernal.eu: monero community may be not there yet. Many think in terms of perfect decentralization/trustlessness /away 09:23:00 it is time to wake up. better to accept it and build something that is truly decentralized, not just mental gymnastics to pretend it can side step CAP / FLP impossibility. 11:44:08 this ignores the fact that millions of XMR have been seized by govts over the years already, and will continue to do so, and also that the govt could quietly pressure kraken and other exchanges that hold significant reserves without ever buying a thing > <@monerobull:matrix.org> attacking PoS requires a massive up-front investment and pumps Monero, which puts tons of eyes on it 11:48:22 I found a solution: Just psyop people into buying Monero. Increases security budget without introducing any new problems. 11:49:44 Monero $10k EOY. 11:52:36

Imagine monetary base jumping kills your net worth 🤣 11:53:33 Imagine thinking that it takes 2 billion$ to acquire 34% of the stake > <@monerobull:matrix.org> Imagine spending 2 billion dollars pumping monero up and then you just get forked out. GGs, thanks for the tax money Mr nation state 11:55:08

Way less with the seizures of monero 11:55:23 @ofrnxmr:xmr.mx: It's a realistic number for moneros size 11:56:21 Market cap is not a realistic number. Its the number if all coins were sold at the current market price 11:56:57 It's not about marketcap 11:57:13 Acquiring a large stake is one way to bias PoS, but another more subtle is pressuring existing validators representing 33+%, this doesn't cost anything to a willing state actor, and given a small validator set it would be rather easy to identify enough of them. > <@monerobull:matrix.org> the PoS-Attack pump would attract fomo-buyers which just makes it even more expensive 11:57:14 It's about the estimated cost 11:58:11 If you but 500m worth of coins, the price is likely 2x on exchanges, opposite if you sell that much. Unless you're buying OTC (and not staking your botnet, dnm, or seized xmr), its not 2billion 11:58:16 @jwinterm:matrix.org: where isthis figure of "Millions of XMR" have been seized coming from ? 11:58:29 @hbs:matrix.org: If our validators are all behind Tor, that's going to be very annoying 11:58:31 @jack_ma_blabla:matrix.org: my ass 11:58:49 @jwinterm:matrix.org: Based ass 11:59:20 @ofrnxmr:xmr.mx: 20 million pushed us over 400$ 11:59:31 You have no idea how illiquid monero is 11:59:40 Exactly 11:59:42 Youre proving my point 11:59:59 What? That PoS would be insanely expensive to attack? 12:00:08 if monero was highly liquid, id agree that coins were widely distributed 12:00:33 34% STAKE is NOT 34% of the supply 12:00:37 Monroe is distributed because it's used 12:01:13 sourced from govt-aligned LLM: 12:01:13 > In summary, while the U.S. government has seized an unknown total quantity of Monero from various darknet market operations, the only publicly confirmed figure to date is the 11,993.15882 XMR from the AlphaBay case. 12:01:24 that is 12k in 2017 12:01:28 @ofrnxmr:xmr.mx: If you assume similar levels of participation as on other pos systems, ~20-30% of the supply would be staked 12:01:31 dnm adoption of monero accelerated from there 12:01:41 and there has been probably dozens of markets shutdown since then 12:02:08 I feel like a million plus or minus by all govts in the 8 years since then is a pretty good guess 12:02:11 thx ass 12:02:19 K and M a huge difference > <@jwinterm:matrix.org> sourced from govt-aligned LLM: 12:02:43 @jack_ma_blabla:matrix.org: that's one market from 8 years ago... 12:02:43 @monerobull:matrix.org: So an entity would need 7-10% of supply, and 80% of supply was printed in 4 yrs (jwintem, confirm?) And 10% is still unspend pre-rct inputs 12:02:51 Widely distributed, my ass 12:03:14 how many xmr are sitting on kraken rn? a million? 12:03:18 @jwinterm:matrix.org: count the number of busts where xmr was recovered 12:03:23 how much do you expect plebs to stake? 12:03:36 @jack_ma_blabla:matrix.org: it's undisclosed and therefore ucountable 12:03:51 Staking is not much more complicated than running a node 12:04:00 @jwinterm:matrix.org: enough, if there is a incentive ; without incentive we have 12k nodes 12:04:04 @monerobull:matrix.org: or mining, and no one mines... 12:04:06 @jwinterm:matrix.org: Theyd have to use staking pools, or stake on a cex, since TFL staking has limoted stakers 12:04:17 @jwinterm:matrix.org: Fuck mining 12:04:20 I'm mining 12:04:28 But my PC can only pull 65 watts 12:04:35 I can't scale it up 12:04:35 @jack_ma_blabla:matrix.org: We have like 4k nodes. 8k are spy nodes 12:04:52 anyone in this channel is an ultranerd and therefore not representative of "most people", even most xmr users imo 12:05:08 @ofrnxmr:xmr.mx: 4k connectable ? there are plenty behind nat and not active 24/7 12:05:37 @jack_ma_blabla:matrix.org: Right. More like 1.5k LOL 12:05:37 The fact is that the people just don't have nearly enough compute compared to the data centers 12:05:59 It's easier for individuals to add 1k$ of network security via staking than mining 12:06:05 Old report has 80% of monero neteork traffic handled by 10% of the network, "super nodes" 12:06:08 @jwinterm:matrix.org: yes but you are representative 12:06:12 @monerobull:matrix.org: No it isnt 12:06:22 It definitely is 12:06:26 @jack_ma_blabla:matrix.org: neigh weigh jose 12:06:26 @ofrnxmr:xmr.mx: remote nodes ? 12:06:31 @jack_ma_blabla:matrix.org: What? 12:06:41 Me as a hardcore monero supporter can be out hashed for pennies 12:06:45 @monerobull:matrix.org: Bro, are you not keeping up? 12:06:59 TFL is not "staking for everybody" 12:07:13 @ofrnxmr:xmr.mx: super nodes are those public nodes like cake ? 12:07:16 eth is a 32 eth minimum. You need 110k to become a validator 12:07:23 Staking adds security asymmetricly 12:07:37 @jack_ma_blabla:matrix.org: No, they {were} nodes that serve >1000 connections 12:07:39 @ofrnxmr:xmr.mx: How many times is monero smaller than eth 12:07:52 > As of 2025, centralized exchanges (CEXs) account for 24.0% of all staked ETH, representing 8.13 million ETH. 12:07:56 @monerobull:matrix.org: monero staking is intended to be like 100 validators 12:08:08 Bullshit 12:08:12 Thats not you. Your little bag aint worth 1 piconero 12:08:16 Serai can do 150 per network already 12:08:23 everyone with enough xmr, for example 16xmr is not a huge amount > <@ofrnxmr:xmr.mx> TFL is not "staking for everybody" 12:08:42 @jack_ma_blabla:matrix.org: Again wrong. Its not intended to scale to 1000+ users 12:08:51 Who says thay 12:08:55 kayaba 12:09:03 @ofrnxmr:xmr.mx: why so ? 12:09:05 Kayba said 109 validators? 12:09:14 When serai can do 150? 12:09:15 serai doesn't exist afaik...but kind of beside the point imo, people are lazy and most people leave coins on exchanges, especially when the exchange offers to stake for them and take a small cut of their stake rewards 12:09:30 which leads to the govt being able to just pressure regulated exchanges to control the network 12:09:38 Monero has barely any exchanges anymore 12:09:48

You can buy it overtime and with other sources( staking and seizures) > <@ofrnxmr:xmr.mx> If you but 500m worth of coins, the price is likely 2x on exchanges, opposite if you sell that much. Unless you're buying OTC (and not staking your botnet, dnm, or seized xmr), its not 2billion 12:09:49 which makes it even more of an issue 12:10:07 @jwinterm:matrix.org: wont they be slashes if they do anything funny ? 12:10:11 All pleb stake goes straight to kucoin + kraken 12:10:29 @ofrnxmr:xmr.mx: easist way to buy xmr 12:10:37 how do you slash the slasher? 12:10:42 @jack_ma_blabla:matrix.org: Haveno 12:10:59 @monerobull:matrix.org: not easy as a cex 12:11:03 @monerobull:matrix.org: Thats just plain false 12:11:04 Definitely is 12:11:12 Definitely is not 12:11:18

@jack_ma_blabla:matrix.org: not easy as mining 12:11:19 Way easier to set up haveno than registering a KYC cex account 12:11:23 @jwinterm:matrix.org: that will be answered by the book 12:11:47 @p-q:matrix.org: Nobody mines because you get 3 cents per day 12:11:47 color me skeptical 12:11:48 @monerobull:matrix.org: its easier for plebs to open a kyc acc 12:12:28 Barely anyone invests in monero like that 12:12:36 Monero is not a pleb coin 12:12:43 Most plebs who use it use it to buy drugs 12:12:43 Barely anyone in THE MONERO MATRIX COMMUNITY 12:12:51 Not to make 1.5% apy 12:12:51 Get out of your bubble for 13seconds 12:12:53 no incentive to invest > <@monerobull:matrix.org> Barely anyone invests in monero like that 12:13:00 We, the community, produce like 100tx/day 12:13:13 There are another 29900 txs that arent us 12:13:13 Historically Monero is a shit investment 12:13:22 Id rather buy eth for number go up 12:13:26 @monerobull:matrix.org: Thats also false 12:13:51 @ofrnxmr:xmr.mx: i spam the rest 29000 for it to look active 12:14:00 @ofrnxmr:xmr.mx: Tell that to my eth I sold for monero 12:14:12 @monerobull:matrix.org: since randomx 12:14:14 @jack_ma_blabla:matrix.org: at least 5k of those are some service that only sends txs every other day 12:15:18 I believe without PoS we will sooner rather than later get hit with a multi day reorg 12:15:29 It's not even that expensive 12:15:42 You could probably make profit by shorting at the same time 12:15:45 And double spending 12:15:54 we are just waiting for it > <@monerobull:matrix.org> I believe without PoS we will sooner rather than later get hit with a multi day reorg 12:16:16 @monerobull:matrix.org: not enough oi to make profit 12:16:46 Especially once serai is live 12:16:56 A multi day reorg could be very profitable 12:17:16 Fuck I didn't even consider that 12:17:21 Serai will make it more likely to happen 12:17:26 Can you go 24hrs without glazing serai 12:17:30 4.1M xmr seized by govts prove me wrong https://pastebin.com/yHc0dpLi 12:17:48 serai will not launch or with 720 block conf > <@monerobull:matrix.org> Especially once serai is live 12:19:01 @ofrnxmr:xmr.mx: "serai will create a doublespend Honeypot that makes a 51% attack profitable" -ofrn cAn yOu stOp gLaZinG 12:19:40 Thats 3 serais in 5mins, can we go for 4? 12:19:52 3mins* 12:19:56 Strawman 12:20:44 im not using serai glazing as a counter arguement 12:21:23 You're completely derailing the discussion with petty insults 12:21:37 This discussion has been derailed for hours 12:22:06 PoS = cfb won 12:22:45 Cfb could have already successfully double-spend 12:23:47 The data center risk is so much higher than the theoretical case of the feds holding a ton of monero for some reason 12:23:54 Guys, if you can't mine and want to secure Monero with a stake, I just found out Monero actually already has a superior version of PoS that does not have any of its problems... It's called buying the coin. (which raises the price, which raises the miner reward, which raises the hash rate) 12:24:45 Doesn't change the fact that globally Amazon and Google have more compute than all individuals combined 12:24:48 @monerobull:matrix.org: this is a false dichotomy 12:24:53 Which is really the core issue with PoW 12:25:08 @monerobull:matrix.org: so switch to zano 12:25:14