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snathan-87[m]
Guys iI dont know if here is the best place to such guestion but I was wondering if there is a way to measure a monero node productivity? What would be the better productivy criteria? Number of connected wallets, RPC requests, network activity?
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hyc
no
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hyc
try #monero
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hyc
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pauliouk
hmm, will it even be able to compete against a similarly priced ASIC?
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hyc
yeah, I'd expect so.
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hyc
it is a sha256 ASIC. I would certainly bet on Intel's design experience over any other smaller chip company
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pauliouk
ah misread. chip not CPU.
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pauliouk
hmmm fair enough, smack a few thousand of those onto a board, submerge it in refrigerated oil, and hopefully see a competitive hash rate
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hyc
it's still about hash/watt. they can glue as many together as needed to reach a target aggregate rate
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moneromooo
Or use gold connectors, claim cleaner SHA-256 hashes, sell to audiophiles for 150% markup.
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sech1
"ultra-low-voltage"
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sech1
should be good hash/watt
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sech1
they have the tech for power efficient CPUs already
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gingeropolous[m]
hrm, wonder if they'll plop sha256 asics into the CPU
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xmrpow
hyc: " so security vs market cap has halved." Has there ever been thought about modeling monero s supply curve in percentage terms? So that the coin emission is always let s say 1% of the total coin supply. Because with the fixed tail emission security vs marketcap is decreasing as well although it s disinflationary. All assumed under a scenario where xmr price keeps at a constant level.
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merope
xmrpow: what you're describing is exponential inflation of the total supply, which is kinda bad
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xmrpow
xmrpow: Yes, the supply is growing exponantially. But shouldnt that be needed in order to keepp security vs marketcap in the same ratio? Im just guessing around. So sorry for potential logic bullshit :)
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moneromooo
Aeon considered this, not sure they did it in the end though.
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moneromooo
I remember something about 0.8% annual increase.
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xmrpow
merope: I think it s not exponential inflation but rather exponential coin supply growth
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merope
Exponential supply growth is exponential inflation of the coin
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merope
I'm not entirely sure it would keep the ratio constant though
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merope
Especially since exponential inflation disincentivizes people from holding coins for too long, because their value decreases over time
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merope
Or rather: there's active pressure to keep dumping the coins and re-buy them later at a potentially discounted price, if the market cap doesn't grow as fast as the supply
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merope
And the "security budget" is given by (block reward + fees) * coin price / block time
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merope
Hmmm, I wonder if I can rework the block reward and price terms and replace them with market cap and inflation percentage...
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hyc
I think the coin supply should be manually adjusted every year based on preceding year's market performance. :P
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xmrpow
"Especially since exponential inflation disincentivizes people from holding coins for too long, because their value decreases over time" But isnt that just the cost to run the system? If sb would want to achieve a system with 0% inflation, you would have to rely on the fee market. So correct me if im wrong there... But if the security budget is staying constant and not growing at the same rate as the coin supply does... I thin
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xmrpow
atio is getting worse -> PoW security is getting lower. Totally ignoring the fee market. Though I have to admit that supply growth rate is converging to zero...
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w[m]
I don't like the idea of changing xmr inflation due to cex reported fiat value, at all.
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w[m]
s/I don't like the idea of changing xmr inflation due to cex reported fiat value, at all./I don't like the idea of changing xmr inflation to respect cex reported fiat value, at all./
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w[m]
hyc: Xhv.. Lol
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xmrpow
w[m]: Set aside that the market is heavily manipulated. I think in the end you are able to get x eur for x xmr, whatever the ratio might be. But if the market value would be zero the whole system would fall apart...
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w[m]
@xmrpow "So correct me if im wrong there... But if the security budget is staying constant and not growing at the same rate as the coin supply does..."
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w[m]
I agree.. But I believe the value (market cap, order books) of xmr reported by cex' is 100% fud.
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w[m]
1xmr shoukd = > 1btc
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hyc
xmr is not facing any such problem yet. hashrate continues to grow.
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hyc
this is a major problem for BTC because hashrate needs to grow at 2x BTC price, but miners have no incentive to invest at that level
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xmrpow
hyc: I agree, but shouldn't problems of this nature be dealt with in beforehand?
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hyc
xmr's distribution curve just doesn't have this problem
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hyc
by middle of next year block reward will be on tail emission, no longer decreasing
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xmrpow
hyc: So you wouldnt agree that the ratio marketcap vs security budget is moving to our disadvantage?
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hyc
I definitely doubt it
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w[m]
xmrpow: Onky if you believe and are willing to sell your xmr at a loss
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w[m]
* Onky if you believe binance and are willing to sell your xmr at a loss
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merope
xmr is not 0% inflation though. It's linear inflation. The percentage converges to 0 in the long run, but it's never actually 0
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hyc
tbh, an exponential inflation around 0.6% would probably have been good
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hyc
again, close to the inflation rate of gold
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merope
"Ratio is getting worse -> PoW security is getting lower"
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merope
I disagree. If the security budget stays constant, then pow security is constant. There's *more incentive to attack*, sure, but the amount of resources required to pull off the attack hasn't changed
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hyc
the cost/benefit ratio changes
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hyc
anyway, increasing incentive to attack while defense is constant means you will eventualyl get attacked.
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w[m]
> <@endor00:matrix.org> "Ratio is getting worse -> PoW security is getting lower"... (full message at
libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/do…08b789b7109d7afed169fd24cf13e8ee1cb)
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w[m]
s///, s/me/xmr/
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w[m]
s///, s/algo/algos/, s/me/xmr/
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merope
hyc: Not necessarily true. If the resources required for the attack are too big, it still won't happen
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merope
Bigger incentive != guarantee
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xmrpow
hyc: Could such protocol changes even be done nowadays?
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merope
Cost/benefit is changing only because the benefit is going up, but the cost is still there
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xmrpow
merope: True. But considering that AWS or Azure exist... The ressources are there.
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hyc
indeed. at the extreme, it will be possible.
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gingeropolous
if u superimpose the 2020 azure hashspike on the current network, it would be noteworthy but not concerning i think
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merope
Keep in mind that we're talking about 51% attacks here: their only "active" purpose (other than simply disrupting the system) would be to pull off a double spend. If the cost of the attack is greater than the value of the double spend, then it's pointless
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hyc
along those lines - there may eventually be a point where mining on AWS is profitable, if xmr price keeps rising
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xmrpow
Would be intersting to hear about ArticMine's opinion. Kind of his topic...
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merope
Mining on aws used to be profitable
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hyc
with cryptonight?
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merope
Yup
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hyc
don't think it has been during any of randomx time
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xmrpow
hyc: Yes since randomx profitability is pretty low if you have to pay for electricity and dont use it as a heater...
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merope
Nothing crazy, but back in the 2017-2018 period with the high prices, just before everybody started hoarding those Vegas, it was profitable
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hyc
can only imagine amazon would start raising their prices when they notice
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merope
Still kicking myself for not going all in on it while I could
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xmrpow
hyc: Or just mine by themself :)
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hyc
yeah
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merope
This was with the low-priority spot instances, so the pricing would go up on its own as people started using them more and more
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hyc
"sorry, your kubernetes cluster was shutdown to make room for a higher priority job" ...
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merope
Especially with all the free tier trial accounts
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xmrpow
lol
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merope
That's kinda what happens with spot instances. If someone outbids you and there aren't enough free resources for both of you, you ket kicked out
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merope
*get
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merope
Hence its marketing towards CI pipelines and small batch jobs
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xmrpow
Back to my original question. So you guys don't think that it would be worth to make a change in this direction? For instance with 0.6% inflation instead of 0.6 fixed.
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xmrpow
I kind of like the idea...
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hyc
I think we need to see if humanity survives another 3-4 decades, otherwise it doesn't matter
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w[m]
<xmrpow> "hyc: Yes since randomx profitabi..." <- The way coins are valued.. Is ultimately what price they are sold at.... (full message at
libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/do…803f3b228fba202fd2126e29cf25e602b67)
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w[m]
* The way coins are valued.. Is ultimately what price they are sold at.... (full message at
libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/do…90473662fa7f6f1ff28571b79047c7efefb)
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merope
Keep in mind that, due to the way the dynamic blocksize mechanism works, as the block reward gets bigger so does the base tx fee. Which means tx fees get 0.6% exponentially more expensive too
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hyc
eh, good point
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hyc
yeah that would suck
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w[m]
<xmrpow> "Back to my original question. So..." <- 0.6% is actually less (right now) than 0.6/block. So.. Would that, make it worse?... (full message at
libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/do…a5cbfc8b1a7235f7d0bf76a2e4370baf5f2)
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w[m]
* 0.6% is actually less (right now) than 0.6/block. So.. Would that, make it worse?... (full message at
libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/do…a8b41c9c208d70d8a16e83e2fc87a9e8615)
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merope
Nothing stops the people who sell from setting higher prices
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w[m]
merope: Fake order books because "monero people don't use kyc exchsnges" , or so they are told.
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xmrpow
merope: Haven't thought about that. But assuming that miners need to pay for their electricity they would have to dump the price. So it would be a zero sum game.
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gingeropolous
the beauty of a network of hobby miners
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gingeropolous
the assumption that all miners need to pay for the electricity is a stronger assumption in an industrial network like bitcoin
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gingeropolous
i.e., the assumption on a scale from 1-10, bitcoins a 9, monero's a 2
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w[m]
gingeropolous: I don't think you get 3gh without paying for electricity
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hyc
but majority of hobby miners just eat the cost
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hyc
they're not dumping coins to pay bills
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merope
All miners pay for electricity, one way or another. What changes is the individual tolerance for lower profitability
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merope
The only ones who don't are botnet owners, because they are stealing electricity and cpu time for others
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merope
xmrpow: the incentive for miners would be to set the price as high as possible when selling, to maximise their profits
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merope
But if there are other people selling at lower prices, then they have to lower their ask if they want to sell in time to pay the bills
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xmrpow
w[m]: Im not sure if agrumenting with "fake prices" is the way to go, because "fake prices" are difficult to define and very vague... Of course there is evidence that exchanges are using their power to fiddle with the price, but they are not abusing it that much that person xyz can pump it that easily...
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merope
Don't forget that the other half of profitability is electricity price. So if somebody sets up a big farm in a place with very cheap electricity, they will have much bigger profit margins compared to hobby miners who mine at home and pay massively overinflated prices
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merope
Right now you need roughly 73 H/s/W @ 0.10 $/kWh just to break even
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xmrpow
gingeropolous: Imo the goal should be to define the system in a way that even the "hobby" miners are compensated in an appropriate manner. Randomx brought us one step closer.
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merope
If you're paying 0.20 H/s/W, you're basically losing money on any cpu (unless you somehow tune an epyc/ryzen to 146 H/s/W or higher)
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merope
*0.20 $/kWh
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xmrpow
hyc: "but majority of hobby miners just eat the cost" --> because retailers dont care about rationality... I would not want to rely on that.
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w[m]
xmrpow: They are though.
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w[m]
You can pump xmr to 280$ with 100k or so..
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w[m]
merope: Android can accomplish this
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merope
Lmao. Yeah, you'll show 'em with your 1 kH/s, earning you a whopping 1$/month
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xmrpow
merope: " Don't forget that the other half of profitability is electricity price. So if somebo" --> True, economies of scale are unbeatable...
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w[m]
merope: 1khs?! You make me look good. Earning about 9c over here 💪
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merope
A good efficient tuning on Ryzen can typically reach 110-120 H/s/W (even more if you really push it)
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xmrpow
w[m]:"You can pump xmr to 280$ with 100k or so.." --> but nobody wants to do it :)
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moneromooo
Dump to $130 with $100k though, some might...
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w[m]
moneromooo: 130-185 repeatedly a few weeks back
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merope
w[m]: Just for fun: have a look at how much you could get by just selling the phone and buying xmr with that cash. Then divide that by your "monthly profit" and ask yourself if that phone is gonna last that long before the battery catches fire
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w[m]
* 130-185 repeatedly a few weeks back
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w[m]
Every few seconds
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moneromooo
Oh really. Whee...
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w[m]
<merope> "Just for fun: have a look at how..." <- Hey, I thought we were promoting hobby miners to mine at a loss. 😏... (full message at
libera.ems.host/_matrix/media/r0/do…3369bd1a6df26c71d3cf242eb8871258e6d)
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w[m]
200-135-209 moneromooo
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merope
Actually I always encourage people to look at profitability and do a realistic assessment of their potential profits
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merope
Far too many people thinking they're gonna get rich from magic internet money, when in fact they're just gonna burn their laptops down
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w[m]
merope: I'm just pulling your leg.
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w[m]
But as we're taking about, mining monero is not profitable because of the fud..
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w[m]
"If you can't get the seed, the wrench attack works"
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w[m]
"If you can't break the protocol, break the miners(people)."
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merope
Profitability is down because of botnets
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merope
Botnets don't pay for electricity, so their profitability is infinite
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merope
And there are some very big ones
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merope
Thus pushing profitability down for everyone else
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w[m]
100% agree
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xmrpow
Are there any estimates what the botnet percentage of xmr hashrate might be?
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w[m]
I haven't watched, but I assume a lot of minexmr and a chunk of the HR that appears and disappear from p2pool
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w[m]
So.. Roughly 30-40%
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w[m]
s/%/%. IMO. (Straight out of my backside. No facts to back up my claim)/
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merope
There are a lot or botnets on minexmr
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merope
But p2pool is not exactly botnet-friendly: running a p2pool node would leave a trail leading to the botnet owner
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merope
(Specifically, the server running the p2pool node)
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xmrpow
merope: Maybe it is just somebody pushing nicehash to p2pool
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sech1
you can run p2pool node behind xmrig-proxy, and even the cheapest VPS can run xmrig-proxy
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sech1
plus the wallet address is not known on infected PCs when it's mining to p2pool (only p2pool node knows it)
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merope
Yes, but buying/renting a vps leaves a paper trail to the person who bought it
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xmrpow
merope: You can rent a vps without kyc and pay with xmr :)
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sech1
there are no-kyc VPS
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sech1
that accept XMR
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merope
I'm aware :)
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merope
But it's still a cost
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xmrpow
Though prices are not good there...
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merope
For a botnet, pointing directly to a pool is essentially free
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merope
(Cause many a headaches to the pool admins)
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sech1
pool should ban botnets
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sech1
I know supportxmr bans them, minexmr not so much
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sech1
at least it will incentivize them to mine solo or with p2pool
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merope
Besides, setting up a proxy and/or p2pool requires technical skills
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xmrpow
sech1: Do you have insights about how much xmr hashrate is from botnets? Just asking because of how xmrig collects the fee...
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merope
You'd be amazed at how low the bar is for some skiddies
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merope
Supportxmr can't even ban the biggest botnet, because of the risk that they'll move to minexmr and increase hashrate centralization
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merope
*biggest botnets
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merope
Meanwhile, you've got people like the infamous "hanoi boy" who rented botnet hashrate worth ~30% of the network for several days, who didn't even know what a proxy was and barely spoke any english
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merope
Ended up accidentally ddosing the smaller pools because he was connecting tens of thousands of miners directly to each pool