so why the price surge ?

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> Looks like Jump Crypto or Jane Street just picked up Monero. I've seen an employee asking questions in these channels before, so not surprised they'd make a move

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> They were trying to buy large amounts OTC - pretty obvious they were looking to corner the market

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> "My company does not engage in futures trading. We primarily focus on spot purchases, as we are a conservative hedge fund that exercises caution. We did attempt to buy XMR OTC by contacting Kucoin, Binance, and other centralized exchange providers (CEXes), when it was listed on Binance last year, none of them were able to meet our demands due to liquidity issues and the amount was<clipped message>

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> not even that high."

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> from #monero-markets:monero.social

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> I guess they got forced into buying spot, which is the most accurate info I've found so far after scouring through all the logs. To be honest, nothing else seems to make sense right now

<s​pirobel:kernal.eu> did they ask for your seed phrase 🙂

<f​ullninja:matrix.org> Cake wallet sync forever..........

<f​ullninja:matrix.org> Connection is good tried with different nodes.

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> No, it's not recent. I was just reading through logs from last year

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> These movements aren't being caused by leverage. It's all spot buys, so some company is buying up big time. Last year, I noticed that one of the employees at a hedge fund or trading firm was hanging around here, and they seemed to know a whole lot more than they should've. I'm convinced they're behind it

<s​pirobel:kernal.eu> you mean this googlemozilla person?

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> Yes

So would Bisq Easy -> BTC/XMR swapper a more easy way to get the first Monero? Is it more developed and widely-used than Haveno's no-deposit option?

<x​3cc:nope.chat> matrix.monero.social/_matrix/media/…/nope.chat/EJUkCtGhGiFmoYWVodPfOKWT

<x​3cc:nope.chat> What the fuck just happened over night

<x​3cc:nope.chat> A literally woke up and my net worth is +20%

<x​3cc:nope.chat> Can someone explain what happened

<x​3cc:nope.chat> Maybe I’m still dreaming

<j​effro256:monero.social> The market value of the US dollar dropped against XMR

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> Some people believe that the current situation is due to a recent hack of over 300m BTC, where this individual swapped some of their funds into Monero. However, I think it's unlikely because the North Korea hack in the past, which involved over 1b in BTC, had no impact on the price despite emptying most instant exchange reserves. I think a hedge fund is buying up

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> x.com/zachxbt/status/1916756932763046273

<h​ardhatter:monero.social> x3cc (extremely autistic & delusional): your whole net worth is in monero ?

<x​3cc:nope.chat> Yes man I bet for monero

<x​3cc:nope.chat> Yes man I bet on monero

<x​3cc:nope.chat> matrix.monero.social/_matrix/media/…/nope.chat/APrQjAZrxYBubkQCYiysvkZG

<x​3cc:nope.chat> I think it’s not the dollar issue, other currencies dropped against xmr too

<x​3cc:nope.chat> So lazarus didn’t swap their stolen eth to xmr previously? Because price should be increased too

<a​remor:matrix.org> exch didn’t exist now and they were a huge price suppressor

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> Lazarus emptied all the reserves, which included exch, totaling thousands of XMR. This led me to question whether the hack was solely the cause. They also triggered multiple withdrawal restrictions from MEXC

<x​3cc:nope.chat> Yes I remember, but price didn’t change in that time

<x​3cc:nope.chat> Why do you think it changed now?

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> I don't think a $300m hack would be enough to trigger a price movement of this magnitude, considering you can't swap such a large amount without potentially triggering KYC checks. It just doesn't make sense

<x​3cc:nope.chat> Yea something is really going on

<a​remor:matrix.org> Exch was a price suppressor. That doesn’t exist now

<x​3cc:nope.chat> In hope now stable price of monero if 300+ 🙏😇

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> I don't think the hack was the cause. In my opinion, I believe it was due to a specific hedge fund, but I could be wrong. To be honest, no one really knows for sure

<x​3cc:nope.chat> In hope now stable price of monero is 300+ 🙏😇

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> How? Exch accused Binance and other centralized exchanges of suppressing the price

<a​remor:matrix.org> Exch literally had locked prices

<a​remor:matrix.org> So you could buy millions on there and not move the market

<m​onerobull:matrix.org> they still have at least 100M

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> Okay, so let's consider how using any other instant exchange would move the market. If you trade large amounts on Changelly or another similar service, it will typically lock your Monero and request KYC information. In reality, no instant exchange can handle such high volumes without implementing KYC checks. If a hacker were to use an exchange to swap Bitcoin for Monero, they woul<clipped message>

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> d likely only be able to lock the Bitcoin side of the transaction, and nothing else would happen

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> I don't believe it's even possible to exchange $200M without KYC checks. Currently, there are no reputable Monero decentralized exchanges that allow for such large transactions. Using fake KYC information is not a viable option, as the process typically involves contacting support and undergoing a lengthy review process that can take weeks or months, not just hours. I don't think it's credible

<m​onerobull:matrix.org> id just wait for serai if i was them

<a​remor:matrix.org> /s

<a​remor:matrix.org> And when is that?

<m​onerobull:matrix.org> probably ready to take that amount of volume within a yaer

<m​onerobull:matrix.org> probably ready to take that amount of volume within a year

<m​onerobull:matrix.org> but if you sit on 300M in dirty bitcoin, i dont think waiting a bit is a bit deal

<m​onerobull:matrix.org> but if you sit on 300M in dirty bitcoin, i dont think waiting a bit is a big deal

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> 2027

<a​remor:matrix.org> Who says it would all be 1 swap? Or even could tell it’s coming from the same entity?

<m​onerobull:matrix.org> they are talking about in general

<m​odul8:matrix.org> i would have bought 300 million with of mullvad vpn with that money, just for fun.

<m​onerobull:matrix.org> the entire instant swapper world can probably not support that much xmr

<m​onerobull:matrix.org> the entire instant swapper world can probably not support selling that much xmr

<a​remor:matrix.org> Don’t they publish their volumes & capacities? No reason to guess

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> It doesn't matter how many swaps you split it into. No instant exchange can handle this much XMR, and they will not blindly buy XMR from exchanges without locking the BTC side of the trade. If you look at Reddit, there are numerous instances where people tried exchanging low 6 figures, and the trades got locked for months. It makes little sense, and Zachxbt is providing no useful <clipped message>

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> information. He's simply saying that the hacker might have used more than 6+ swappers. I call lies

<a​remor:matrix.org> It doesn’t get more legible than a btc address

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> I'm currently investigating the address

<m​onerobull:matrix.org> lmao

<m​onerobull:matrix.org> the hacker has a pending tx thats been stuck for an hour now

<m​onerobull:matrix.org> because no bitcoin blocks

<k​evino:tchncs.de> how much bitcoin is in that transaction?

<a​remor:matrix.org> mempool strikes again

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> Correct bc1qkkwk4u78wk6y8eh4jtc52hl3zdvw242wj4xanc

<m​onerobull:matrix.org> 1000

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> bc1qwgdu6shmrzla77pv6vtl4jdq7rjxr9d8l7nzrw unconfirmed 98m

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> Hacker purchased $21.29 million XMR from FixedFloat (bc1qkq6d7aa3y5ug8fsgppf70fcf3u29nlc9d3wtyf) and the BTC was subsequently deposited into KuCoin (36bPSAVRrt3ParsQePatqQaczsHSS3QLHt)

<x​3cc:nope.chat> Tbh I thought that next price raise will be influenced by fcmp, just imagine how much more value monero will have with this tech

<x​3cc:nope.chat> This current spike may not last long I guess, but we’ll see

<c​t:xmr.mx> thats quite delusional. fcmp is already priced in

<a​remor:matrix.org> The general public doesn’t care. Just be concerned with yourself

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> 98m left

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> We're not sure if this is a hacker or someone who's just exchanging for Monero. It could be either case

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> The current movement involves shifting multiple addresses, with at least $98 million in BTC potentially being exchanged for XMR

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> matrix.monero.social/_matrix/media/…matrix.org/LdYiFbUhkzohEocKTbvRYPvd

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> Almost $1 million in BTC is being exchanged for XMR via an unknown instant exchange that relies on Binance as its supplier

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> matrix.monero.social/_matrix/media/…matrix.org/whlcchXPAvvAHBlKURpyGwfV

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> Multiple instances of these transactions exist. Unfortunately, I don't have the time to track every other transaction, but upon closer inspection of this particular address, I suspect it may have influenced price action

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> FCMP++ may or may not be priced, while Serai isn't

<3​21bob321:monero.social> People only want to use it, doubt they care

<x​3cc:nope.chat> Dan (Is not the man & Braxman Tomsparks Qtip USAID Advocate) Backup: ppl don’t care what they use you say? I doubt that

<p​reland:monero.social> I wasn’t expecting it to hit 350 overnight, my goodness

<j​ivan:opaline.uk> I can assure you that laymen do not care, and are largely not even aware of, features like FCMP.

<j​ivan:opaline.uk> But then, laymen are also not market movers, so

<x​3cc:nope.chat> I thought monero is a stablecoin 😭

<3​21bob321:monero.social> As in they just want to use the service

<3​21bob321:monero.social> Don't care about price pump

<x​3cc:nope.chat> Isn’t fcmp and serai is 2 separate projects? Even tho it’s Kayaba’s work

<x​3cc:nope.chat> Isn’t fcmp and serai is 2 separate projects? Even tho it’s Kayaba’s work mostly

<3​21bob321:monero.social> Different things

<3​21bob321:monero.social> Did monero pump, when haveno went mainnet ?

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> Yes, but it's best if FCMP++ comes out before Serai. Without it, tracking Monero transactions will be really easy from Serai

<x​3cc:nope.chat> Those price spikes are kinda stressful to be honest

<x​3cc:nope.chat> Even tho it goes up

<t​rasherdk:monero.social> I must doubt your investigative skills, after your mentioning of Changelly as a possible exchange for anything.

<s​yntheticbird:monero.social> I must inform you that i've started the preparation of a bag of popcorn.

"Almost $1 million in BTC is being exchanged for XMR via an unknown instant exchange that relies on Binance as its supplier" How does that work, with Binance not being present on Binance?

er, with XMR not being present on Binance of course

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> This BTC ended up on Binance, so you can take a look at it yourself 🤷‍♂️I'm just using the address zachxbt provided

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> "Hacker" managed to exchange over $20 million on FixedFloat somehow. I'm not sure how. I already had doubts about KYC

<p​reland:monero.social> So assuming that zachxbt is correct (they probably are), then the price….normally wouldn’t stabilize at 270 from an earlier high of around 230

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> It could actually become a self-fulfilling prophecy, and Monero might go even higher. If people believe that the hacker will convert their remaining $97m into Monero, it will lead to a surge in demand and long leverage, which will push the price even higher

<p​reland:monero.social> Oh there’s more remaining?

<p​reland:monero.social> Nvm then, that’s what is being priced in

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> bc1qwzzx2r40twl4v5yqsaqlec9hg6f0ydxe7dlwy7 $97,251,445

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> I love transparent blockchains!

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> Are you still involved with the Buttcoin community preland? I was wondering what their thoughts are on this recent development

<p​reland:monero.social> What’s actually rly funny is that the longer the hackers *dont* convert that amount, the longer that the price of XMR will remain sustained at a higher price, giving them the opportunity to sell out their xmr at a higher price

<p​reland:monero.social> Maybe hackers are big brain?

<p​reland:monero.social> They don’t know

<p​reland:monero.social> I’m pretty sure I know what their thoughts will be (not good; which Tbf I’m kinda mixed on the whole thing too)

<p​reland:monero.social> On one hand, this entire incident reflects kinda poorly on Monero currently being usable as a stable currency

<p​reland:monero.social> On the other hand…..my paper wealth just increased by like 60$ or so

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> I'm frustrated with the security risks associated with cryptocurrency. A single mistake, such as downloading malware or inadvertently sharing your private phrase, can have devastating consequences

<e​longated:matrix.org> Ya like losing your home keys isn’t risky , you should start living in caves

<p​reland:monero.social> I think that Monero needs to seriously address this tbh.

<p​reland:monero.social> As opposed to other “crypto”, everything on Monero occurs at L1…..as it should. But this also means that safety features need to be put at the chain level…..as it should tbh

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> I wonder how this hacker plans to launder the money. Each time this happens, they're always caught, and since it's not North Korea, it's likely they'll be apprehended again

<p​reland:monero.social> Tbh they might not plan on doing anything with it

<p​reland:monero.social> They might just sit on it for a while

<p​reland:monero.social> Very few people in the world have an urgent need to liquidate 200m

wen EP159 upgrade x.com/e_goldstein_84/status/1916704141113540890

whatever that means

that feeling when people use LLMs to write news articles as fast as possible

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> It seems like an amateur job, though. They're doing linear transfers. This doesn't work and Chainalysis can easily track this. They're wasting their time. Using centralized exchanges also means all their outputs are poisoned. They need to make sure their fingerprint is secured from swapper logs. They also need to ensure that timing attacks against Tor aren't viable because of the <clipped message>

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> threat model for this type of attack. No one wins

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> You can tell this isn't Lazarus, who was smart enough to do cross-bridge transfers to obfuscate the origin of their funds. This hacker is simply transferring funds from one address to another. If they try to swap using a centralized exchange, they'll likely get their funds locked

<p​reland:monero.social> (Hint: the world is smaller than it seems; maybe it isn’t a good idea to discuss what the hacker is doing wrong when they could be listening)

<a​pplepearshop:matrix.org> They made too many mistakes. I'm an idiot who barely knows how to look at this stuff. Professionals will get this guy easily - doesn't matter what they do now

<p​reland:monero.social> “Yeah, they are screwed; tbh if I was them (wink wink) I would just give up and turn myself into the authorities (wink wink)”